The Fragile Balance: Security Dilemmas and Geopolitical Rivalry in Russia-Turkey Relations

Abstract

This research offers an extensive review of the security interplay of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Türkiye during the first decades of the 21st century. Although the first decade of the century showed some signs of "multi-dimensional cooperation," the following years have proven that there were fundamental structural tensions. This research examines the development of their relationships from an offensive realism perspective and through the security dilemma theory. The analysis will focus on the conflict-prone regions of the Black Sea, Syria, and the South Caucasus, where a "competitive coexistence" pattern emerges. The special emphasis will be on Russia's revisionism and Türkiye's strategic autonomy as factors that lead to overlapping security zones and resulting confrontations.

To fulfil the purpose of this research, it is necessary to consider the theoretical basis for how the balance established at the end of the Cold War gives way to an age of increasing geopolitical tension, with emphasis on the disruptive role of hegemonic aspirations. Methodologically, the paper relies on qualitative analysis of the region's geopolitical dynamics, doctrines, and conflict outcomes, drawing on empirical evidence from naval deployments, treaties, and indicators of energy dependence. It becomes clear that instruments such as the Astana process can be seen as means of managing rivalry rather than of building peace. Moreover, the paper finds that Türkiye's hard power serves as a critical balancing force against Russian dominance after the Second Karabakh War of 2020. The article also argues that energy interdependence creates asymmetric vulnerability and can generate coercive geopolitical leverage.