Implications of a 12 Day Israel-Iran War for the South Caucasus: Reshuffling the Deck or Same Old Geopolitics Still in Play?
Abstract
Ever since the Islamic Revolution, the world community in general, and the Middle Easterners in particular, had been exposed to the dread of the outbreak of the Israel-Iran war. This danger, which had been looming for four decades, eventually materialised and struck the region as a geostrategic quake on June 13, 2025. The so-called 12 Day War has far-reaching implications not only for the Middle East but also for the South Caucasus, since the security of this region is effectively intertwined with that of the Middle East. On August 9, 2025, after less than three weeks since the end of the Israel-Iran War, Armenia and Azerbaijan initialed peace accord, as well as signed a deal that will reopen a transit corridor linking Azerbaijan to its enclave Nakhchivan, also connecting Asia and Europe named Trump Route for Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP) development rights of which is given to the US. This event marks the shifting geopolitics of the South Caucasus and highlights how developments in the Middle East impact the region. This article examines the immediate outcomes and possible repercussions of the Israel-Iran war for the geopolitics of the South Caucasus region, critically analysing the continuity and change in security perceptions and dynamics of the area.
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