Wallis-Moore Phase-frequency Criterion in the Statistical Analysis of the Presence of Trends in the Profitability of Crop Production

Tatiana Chaika

Abstract

The article deals with the problem of determining the trend of profitability dynamics of agricultural production of Ukrainian enterprises for the period 1990-2017.

The objectives of the article are: 1) to identify the possibilities and features of the use of the Wallis-Moore phase-frequency criterion for diagnosing the presence (absence) of a trend in a time series of profitability of agricultural production; 2) to systematize the existing approaches to the determination of the critical level of the Wallis-Moore criterion; 3) to develop recommendations for the practical application of this criterion in the analysis of the dynamics of profitability of agricultural production.

The study has found that currently there are various approaches to the determination of the recommended critical value of the Wallis-Moore criterion; with regard to the study of the dynamics of profitability of agricultural production, the question of choosing an acceptable level of confidence probability (level of significance) for conducting research remains a controversial issue. The leading factors influencing the trend of profitability of crop production in Ukraine are the general economic situation in the country and natural conditions. The specificity of agricultural production, its seasonality and dependence on weather conditions leads to the need of “smoothing out” natural fluctuations in productivity and profitability using various instruments of economic regulation, in particular, by attracting external financing.

The results of the Wallis-Moore criterion largely depend on the given level of confidence. The choice of the level of confidence is a poorly formalized process and depends directly on the qualifications and experience of the researcher, as well as on his assessment of the requirements for the reliability of the obtained results.

The scientific novelty of the study lies in clarifying the methodological approach to establishing confidence in the study of the presence (absence) of the profitability trend of agricultural products.

The results of this study can be used in practical analytical work, related to the analysis of trends in the development of economic processes.

Prospects for further research are associated with the comparative analysis of various approaches to the analysis of the development trend of economic indicators.



Keywords


Wallis-Moore criterion; phase-frequency criterion; profitability; profitability of agriculture; trend; trend detection; confidence level; significance level



References


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