Strategic Balancing in the South Caucasus: Azerbaijan's Multi-Vector Foreign Policy and New Actors

Abstract

As one of the main arenas of modern geopolitical competition, ensuring security and stability in the South Caucasus is characterised by the mutual relations of the three neighboring countries of the region, Iran, Russia, and Türkiye, the development of regional strategies of the United States and Western Europe, as well as the relations of traditional actors towards new players entering the system of regional international relations. The independence of the countries in the region coincided with a period of significant turmoil and uncertainty. During the 1990s, the policies of the United States and Russia towards the region were on the verge of evolution. While Russia, Iran, and Türkiye, neighbouring countries of the South Caucasus, had historical, ethnic, and religious interests, the United States and the European Union evaluated the region more from the perspective of energy, democracy, and security. However, today, new changes are taking place in the regional security environment, primarily manifested in the weakening of traditional actors' influence and the entry of new actors, such as China, India, Pakistan, Israel, and the Gulf countries, into the regional geopolitical competition space. At the same time, the security of the South Caucasus is closely linked to the security of other regions - the Middle East, the Balkans, the Black Sea basin, and Central Asia. In this regard, new challenges are emerging for the foreign policy of the South Caucasus states. The struggle of new powers for influence in the region, on the one hand, allows Azerbaijan, Georgia and Armenia to implement a more balanced and multi-vector policy.

On the other hand, the problem of reconciling different interests arises. The emergence of new participants in the South Caucasus presents an opportunity to diminish the influence of traditional actors seeking to maintain the status quo and manipulate the region's countries. At the same time, economic projects, increased investments, construction and planning of transport corridors can stimulate the positive development of the regional security architecture.On the other hand, the problem of reconciling different interests arises. The emergence of new participants in the South Caucasus presents an opportunity to diminish the influence of traditional actors seeking to maintain the status quo and manipulate the region's countries. At the same time, economic projects, increased investments, construction and planning of transport corridors can stimulate the positive development of the regional security architecture.