A New Security Architecture in Türkiye-Azerbaijan Relations Between 2018 and 2023

Abstract

Between 2018 and 2023, Türkiye and Azerbaijan significantly redefined their bilateral security relationship, evolving from a historically close partnership into a formalised strategic alliance underpinned by shared geopolitical interests and mutual threat perceptions. This period witnessed the consolidation of a new security architecture characterised by integrated defence planning, joint military operations, and institutionalised security frameworks. The 2020 Second Karabakh War served as a critical juncture, showcasing the effectiveness of Türkiye's military support, including advanced drone warfare and strategic advisory assistance, in reshaping the conflict dynamics in the South Caucasus. The subsequent 2021 Shusha Declaration marked a milestone in bilateral ties, codifying mutual defence commitments, emphasising territorial integrity, and signalling a shift toward a more assertive and coordinated regional posture. This transformation was driven by several structural and contextual factors: shifting power dynamics in the Caucasus and Central Asia, the relative decline of Russian influence, the reassertion of Turkish regional leadership under its "strategic autonomy" policy, and Azerbaijan's rising defence capabilities and economic clout. Moreover, increased cooperation in defence industrial development, intelligence sharing, and energy security has contributed to a multidimensional security framework that transcends traditional military alliances. The emerging Türkiye-Azerbaijan security axis has broader implications for regional stability and geopolitical alignments, particularly for Iran, Armenia, and Russia. It also reflects Ankara's ambition to position itself as a central security actor across the Turkic world and beyond, aligning with the institutional expansion of platforms such as the Organisation of Turkic States. This abstract explores the historical trajectory, institutional mechanisms, and strategic outcomes of the evolving security paradigm, arguing that the Türkiye-Azerbaijan partnership has set a precedent for new forms of regionalism and deterrence-based security cooperation in the post-Soviet geopolitical space.